The current account has emerged as one of the primary indicators of external imbalances in the global economy, and it may be used to assess the strength of a nation's economy. Since the 1990s, it has been a prevalent trend for Asia region to always demonstrate a current account surplus condition and continue to reinforce in the early 2000s. Although it experiences a huge drop of current account balance in 2009 during the mortgage crisis period, the region persists in its current account surplus. Hence, the aim of this study is to assess the determinants of current account imbalances in Asia region. This study is a panel regression model that covered a total of 48 Asia countries from 1990 to 2021 annually. The dependent variable is current account balance and the independent variables are fiscal balance, public debt, age dependency ratio for old, age dependency ratio for young, ICT, and real GDP. The empirical methods that employed are including of panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, and pooled mean group (PMG) estimation. The major finding demonstrates that the determinants of current account imbalances are fiscal balance, public debt, age dependency ratio for old, age dependency ratio for young, and real GDP.
Afonso, A., & Opoku, P. K. (2018). The relationship between fiscal and current account imbalances in OECD economies (REM Working Paper 061-2018). Portugal: Research in Economics and Mathematics. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3293120
Ahmad, S. S., Jaffri, A. A., & Rana, F. (2020). Demographic determinants of current account norms in South Asia. Pakistan Journal of Languages and Translation Studies Issues, 1, 61-77.
Alam, N., & Taib, F. M. (2013). An investigation of the relationship of external public debt with budget deficit, current account deficit, and exchange rate depreciation in debt trap and non-debt trap countries. European Scientific Journal, 9(22), 144-158.
https://doi.org/10.19044/esj.2013.v9n22p%25p
Bangake, C., & Eggoh, J. C. (2012). Pooled mean group estimation on international capital mobility in African countries. Research in Economics, 66(1), 7-17.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2011.06.001
Behera, H. K., & Yadav, I. S. (2019). Explaining India’s current account deficit: A time series perspective. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 26(1), 117-138. https://doi.org/10.1108/jabes-11-2018-0089
Bracke, T., Bussiere, M., Fidora, M., & Straub, R. (2010). A framework for assessing global imbalances. The World Economy, 33(9), 1140-1174. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01266.x
Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T., Vasardani, M. A. (2013). The determinants of current account imbalances in the Euro area: A panel estimation approach. Economic Change Restructuring, 46(3), 299-319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-012-9129-0
Bucevska, V. (2018). Current account imbalances in the context of European integration. In International Association for Research in Income and Wealth General Conference. Copenhagen, Denmark: International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW). http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12188/5951
Cavdar, S. C., & Aydin, A. D. (2015). A different perspective for current account deficit issue on some OECD member countries: A binary panel logit approach. Research in World Economy, 6(3), 14-22. https://doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v6n3p14
Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S., & Zampolli, F. (2011). Achieving growth amid fiscal imbalances: The real effects of debt. In Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings (Vol. 352, pp. 145-196). Kansas City, US: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Chinn, M. D., & Prasad, E. S. (2003). Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: An empirical exploration. Journal of International Economics, 59(1), 47-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(02)00089-2
Das, D. K. (2016). Determinants of current account imbalance in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis. Journal of Economic Structure, 5(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2254288
Emehelu, C. I. (2021). Effects of international trade on economic growth of Nigeria. International Journal of Innovative Finance and Economics Research, 9(1), 144-157.
Feriyanto, N. (2020). Determinants of the Indonesia’s current account balance: An error correction model approach. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(4), 3410-3425. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2020.7.4(55)
Furceri, D., & Zdzienicka, A. (2020). Twin deficits in developing economies. Open Economies Review, 31(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-019-09575-1
Ganchev, G. T., Stavrova, E., & Tsenkov, V. (2012). Testing the twin deficit hypothesis: The case of Central and Eastern Europe countries. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 2(1), 1-21. http://www.ijceas.com/index.php/ijceas/article/view/47
Ganic, M., & Mamuti, A. (2020). A re-examination of the validity of the life cycle hypothesis (LCH): Evidence from emerging Europe. Croatian Economic Survey, 22(2), 73-99. https://doi.org/10.15179/ces.22.2.3
Girma, M. (2018). Determinants of current account balance of Ethiopia economy [Unpublished master’s thesis]. St. Mary’s University.
Gosse, J. B., & Serranito F. (2014). Long-run determinants of current accounts in OECD countries: Lessons for intra-European imbalances. Economic Modelling, 38, 451-462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.008
Gruber, J. W., & Kamin, S. B. (2007). Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(4), 500-522. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.854224
Gu, X., Lei, C., Sheng, L., & Zhao, Q. (2020). Global current account imbalances and the link between income and consumption inequality. Review of International Economics, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12520
Gudmundsson, G. S., & Zoega, G. (2014). Age structure and the current account. Economics Letters, 123(2), 183-186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.02.001
Guillemette, Y., & Strasky, J. (2015). Japan’s challenging debt dynamics. OECD Journal: Economics Studies, 2014(1), 97-108. https://doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2014-5jxvbssqsvmv
Handoyo, R. D., Erlando, A., & Astutik, N. T. (2020). Analysis of twin deficits hypothesis in Indonesia and its impact on financial crisis. Heliyon, 6(1), e03248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03248
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(03)00092-7
Jappelli, T., & Modigliani, F. (1998). The age-saving profile and the life-cycle hypothesis (Working Paper No. 9). Fisciano, Italy: University of Salerno. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781950500.00007
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(98)00023-2
Keys, B. J., Mukherjee, T., Seru, A., & Vig, V. (2010). Did securitization lead to lax screening? Evidence from subprime loans. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 307-362. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2010.125.1.307
King, J. E. (2021). Keynes and Marx reconsidered: The case of Maurice Dobb. Review of Political Economy, 34(1), 93-106. https://doi.org/10.1080/09538259.2021.1882189
Kurniawati, M. A. (2022). Analysis of the impact of information communication technology on economic growth: Empirical evidence from Asian countries. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 29(1), 2-18. https://doi.org/10.1108/jabes-07-2020-0082
Lazar, I., & Andreica, M. E. (2013). Current account balance, private debt and Euro area sovereign debt crisis: A comparison of north and south. Romanian Journal of Economics, 37(2), 40-52. http://www.revecon.ro/articles/2013-2/2013-2-3.pdf
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0304-4076(01)00098-7
Lin, F. (2015). Estimating the effect of the Internet on international trade. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 24(3), 409-428. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2014.881906
Magazzino, C. (2021). The twin deficits in the ASEAN countries. Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, 18(1), 227-248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40844-020-00173-2
Magoti, E., Mabula, S., & Ngong’ho, S. B. (2020). Triple deficit hypothesis: A panel ARDL and DumitreschHurlin panel causality for East African countries. African Journal of Economic Review, 8(1), 144-161.
Makrevska-Disovska, E., & Trpkova-Nestorovska, M. (2016). Factors affecting current account in the Republic of Macedonia. CEA Journal of Economics, 10(2), 45-56.
Modigliani, F. (1986). Life cycle, individual thrift, and the wealth of nations. Science, 234(4777), 704-712. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.234.4777.704
Neaime, S. (2015). Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon. Research in International Business and Finance, 33, 127-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2014.09.004
Okoli, T. T., Tewari, D. D., & Ileasanmi, K. D. (2021). Investigating a threshold effect in twin deficit hypothesis: Evidence from the BRICS economies. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1886451. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1886451
Ozcan, B. (2018). Information and communications technology (ICT) and international trade: Evidence from Turkey. Eurasian Economic Review, 8(1), 93-113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40822-017-0077-x
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 653-670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621-634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
Rashidi, D., Vaez Barzani, M., & Bakhshi, R. (2023). Comparative analysis of financing the government budget deficit through Islamic treasury bills and borrowing from the central bank. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 30(104), 39-72. https://doi.org/10.52547/qjerp.30.104.39
Sahoo, M., Mallick, H., Mahalik, M., & Bekiros, S. (2022). Factors influencing India’s current account balance: Implication for achieving its external sector sustainability. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2311
Samsu, S. H., & Ismail, N. A. (2020). The relationship between the current account balance and its determinants of selected middle-income countries. Quantum Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 1(4), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.55197/qjssh.v1i4.16
Sharma, P. (2020). A trend analysis of current account deficit and its determinants in India. International Journal of Scientific Research in Engineering and Management, Forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3402396
Sima, O. (2020). Twin deficit theory and its verification. In The 14th International Days of Statistics and Economics (pp. 1008-1017). Prague.
Su, T. D., & Nguyen, C. P. (2021). Twin balances, public governance and private investment: Quantile estimation for OECD countries. International Economics, 165, 85-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2020.12.004
Toader, E., Firtescu, B. N., Roman, A., & Anton, S. G. (2018). Impact of information and communication technology infrastructure on economic growth: An empirical assessment for the EU countries. Sustainability, 10(10), 3750-3771. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103750
UNCTADstat. (2022). Balance of payments, current account balance, annual (percentage of GDP), World, 1990-2021 [Data set]. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD]. (2022). Handbook of Statistics. https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdstat45_en.pdf
Wang, M. L., & Choi, C. H. (2019). How information and communication technology affect international trade: A comparative analysis of BRICS countries. Information Technology for Development, 25(3), 455-474. https://doi.org/10.1080/02681102.2018.1493675