Comparative Analysis of Impact of Trade Liberalization on Employment Generation during the Military and Civilian Regimes in Nigeria (1980-2012)

This study examined the comparative analysis of impact of trade liberalization on employment generation in military and civilian regimes in Nigeria. This was with the goal of comparing how trade liberalization affects employment generation during the military and civilian regimes in Nigeria.
Secondary data were used for the study. Annual data from 1980 to 2012 on variables such as employment level, import, export, exchange rate, interest rate and foreign direct investment in Nigeria were sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin, National Bureau of Statistics (various editions) and World Development Indicator (WDI). Tables, graphs Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Error Correction Model (ECM) were used for the analysis of the data.
Results of the study showed that import intensity at lag 3 showed a significant negative relationship with employment generation (t = -2.380, p <0.05). On the contrary, military rule does not have significant effect on the employment generation (t = -1.0268, p>0.05). However, foreign direct investment increases the employment generation at both lag 1 (t =3.0549, p < 0.005)and lag 2 (t =2.1733,p<0.005). As regards the export intensity, increase in export will induce growth in the employment generation, though judging by its p-value, it is statistically insignificant (t = 1.3935, p > 0.05) but the reverse is the case at lag 2, which shows that export intensity decreases employment generation during the civilian dispensation, as well as military regime (t = -2.9397, p < 0.05) . In addition, interest rate shows negative relationship with employment generation, the lag 3 and lag 4 report that an increase in interest rate will lead to decrease in employment generation, thus, it takes three to four years before interest rate affect the country employment generation (t = -2.4083, p < 0.05). Furthermore, error correction coefficient of -0.8723 is appropriately signed and it is statistically significant (t = -4.4585, p < 0.05). It indicates that about 87.23 percent of disequilibrium will be corrected periodically. It also indicates a mean reverting behavior of the model during civilian dispensation.
In conclusion, this study has successfully compared the employment generation during the military and civilian regimes as a result of trade liberalization, and submitted that trade liberalization brings about more employment during civilian rule than during the regime of military rule in Nigeria.