The current paper investigates the factors affecting rail transportation demand using econometric time series in Tehran province. To this end, first the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and then the Johansen cointegration test were applied respectively to study the stationarity of variables of the model. After assuring the stationarity of the variables, Johanson test is applied to assess the balanced and long-term their relationship. The results are indicative of a balanced and long-term relationship. Then Vector Auto Regression Model (VAR) was applied to investigate the dynamism using the two criteria of Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). In addition, Error Correcation Model (ECM) was used to investigate the relation between short and long term fluctuations in passenger rail demand. Also the asymmetric cointegration relationship (nonlinear relationship) was investigated between the variables of the model using Enders and Siklos method (Enders and Siklos, 2001). To this end, Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Model was applied. The result of this estimate pattern is found that there exists asymmetric cointegration relationship between variables.
Ayazi, A. (2001), Selected Main Topics of Microeconomics. Tehran: Allameh Tabatabaee’ University.
Enders, W. and Siklos, P.L. (2001), Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment. Journal of Business and Economic Statistic, 19: 166-176
Enders, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series. Alabama: University of Alabama.
Faghfurian, A. (1998), Investigating Transport Demand in Rasht City. Public Administration Training Center.
FitzRoy, F. and Smith, I. (1998), Passenger Rail Demand in 14 Western European Countries: A Comparative Time Series Study, International Journal of Transport Economics, Vol. 25, pages 299-312.
Ghane Basiri, M. (2003), Estimating the Demand Function for Fuel in Iranian Air Transportation in 1361-1382. Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad University Central Tehran Branch, Iran.
Heimonen, k. (2006), Nonlinear Adjustment in PPP-evidence from Threshold Cointegration. Empirical Economics. Vol. 31, pages 479-495.
Hosseini, Mohammad (2004), Planning of Transportation Engineering and Analysis of Material Handling. Tehran: Publication Center of Iran University of Science and Technology.
Jafari Samimi, A. (2009), Comparative Advantage of the Transportation Industry in Iran. Islamic Azad University-Firoozkuh Branch, Tehran Province,Iran.
Mahmoodi, A. (1997), Transport Economics. Tehran: Institue for Trade Studies and Research.
Mehdizadeh, S. (2001), Estimation and Analysis of Rail Transportation Services in Iran. Faculty of Economics and Accounting, Islamic Azad Central Tehran Branch, Iran.
Rezaei Arjerudi, A. (2010), Investment and Impact of Investment on the Economic Growth of the Country's Rail Transport. Twelfth International Conference on Rail Transport. Iran.
Rezaei Arjerudi, A. , Bazadar Ardebili, P. (2003), Travel Demand Prediction Using Economic Models in Rail Transport. Seventh International Conference on Transport. Sharif University of Technology.
Saeednia, Sh. (2007), Using Eviwes in Econometrics. Tehran: Institute of Economic Affairs.
Shirinbakhsh, Sh. and Hasan khonsary, Z. (2006), Application of Eviews in Econometrics,
Tehran: Alzahra University.
SCI, (2011). Statistical Center of Iran Report, Iran.
Verhoef, E. (2008), Toll Competition in Transport Networks, Journal of Transport Economic and Policy, Vol. 6, pages 361-366.
Weisbrod, G. (2008), Models to Predict the Economic Development Impact of Transportation Projects, Annals of Regional Science, Vol. 42, No 3
Kohansal, M. R., & Torabi, S. (2015). Investigating Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Co-integration of the Factors Affecting the Passenger Rail Demand in Tehran Province. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 5(5). 61-70.
Copyright: © 2015 The Author(s)
Published by Knowledge Words Publications (www.kwpublications.com)
This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this license may be seen at: http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
