International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences

search-icon

Dynamics of Co-integration: A Story from United Kingdom`s Economy

Open access
Exchange rate is a significant factor in international macroeconomics; it affects are witnessed in the recent past on different currency crises in many economies and has attracted focus of policy makers around the globe. But the question is can the exchange rate policy really be used to influence trade flows? Whether we really can say what effect on trade balance a depreciation or appreciation of exchange will have? Is the connection between exchange rate, trade balance and balance of payments is strong enough for us to be able to base a policy on it? So, this research study focuses on the above questions for United Kingdom (UK) economy. Data of defined variables is collected on annual basis for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there exist a long run relationship. UK has significantly and correctly signs the short run dynamic. Exchange rate does not Granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment does not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinatnts of balance of trade affect the exchange rates, also, these rates have an considerable effect ( positive or negative) on balance of payments.
Amano, R. A., & Van Norden, S. (1998). Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate. Journal of international Money and finance, 17(2), 299-316.
Arize, A. C. (1997). Foreign trade and exchange-rate risk in the G-7 countries: Cointegration and error-correction models. Review of financial Economics, 6(1), 95-112.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1998). Do exchange rates follow a random walk process in Middle Eastern countries? Economics Letters, 58(3), 339-344.
Box, G. p. and Jenkins, GM (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, revised edition: Holden-Day, San Francisco.
Broda, C., & Romalis, J. (2011). Identifying the relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility. Paper presented at the Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20.
Ferraro, D., Rogoff, K. S., & Rossi, B. (2012). Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? : National Bureau of Economic Research.
Grenville, S., & Gruen, D. (1999). Capital flows and exchange rates. this volume.
Hamilton, J. D. (2008). Macroeconomics and ARCH: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Himarios, D. (1989). Do devaluations improve the trade balance? The evidence revisited. Economic inquiry, 27(1), 143-168.
Jiménez-Rodríguez*, R., & Sanchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied economics, 37(2), 201-228.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2), 231-254.
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
Kearns, J., & Manners, P. (2006). The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A study using intraday data. International Journal of Central Banking, 2(4), 157-183.
Koray, F., & McMillin, W. D. (2006). Fiscal shocks, the trade balance, and the exchange rate. LSU Deparment of Economic Working Paper, 2.
Liew, V. K.-s., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Chong, T. T.-l. (2004). Are Asian real exchange rates stationary? Economics Letters, 83(3), 313-316.
Nagy, J. G., & Furtan, W. H. (1978). Economic costs and returns from crop development research: The case of rapeseed breeding in Canada. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 26(1), 1-14.
Ndulu, B. J., & Semboja, J. (1995). The Development of Manufacturing for Export in Tanzania: Experience, Policy and Prospects. Manufacturing for Export in the Developing World: Problems and Possibilities”, Routledge, London.
Oladipupo, A. (2011). Impact of exchange rate on balance of payment in Nigeria. African Research Review, 5(4).
Ostry, J. a. A. R. (1992). An Empirical Evaluation of the Macroeconomic effects of Tariffs. International Money and Finance, 11, 63-79.
Parsley, D. C., & Wei, S.-J. (2001). Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography. Journal of international economics, 55(1), 87-105.
Perée, E., & Steinherr, A. (1989). Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade. European Economic Review, 33(6), 1241-1264.
Qiao, H. (2007). Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard. Journal of Policy Modeling, 29(5), 765-782.
Rose, A. K. (1991). The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade: Does the ‘Marshall–Lerner’condition hold? Journal of international economics, 30(3), 301-316.
Rose, A. K. a. Y., J.L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Monetary Economics, 24, 53-68.
Santos-Paulino, A. U. (2002). The effects of trade liberalization on imports in selected developing countries. World Development, 30(6), 959-974.
Singh, T. (2002). India’s trade balance: the role of income and exchange rates. Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(5), 437-452.
Nazeer, A., Jun, W., Shafi, K., Idrees, Z., & Satti, J. A. (2015). Dynamics of Co-integration: A Story from United Kingdom`s Economy. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 5(1), 258-266.