Against the backdrop of China’s persistently low fertility rates despite progressive policy changes, understanding the determinants of fertility intentions at the micro-level has become a issue of paramount importance. Education is a key factor, yet prior research often overlooks the interactive nature of couples' decision-making. We provide a new perspective on the education-fertility relationship by using the 2021 Chinese Social Survey (CSS) data to investigate how educational assortative mating (EAM) can predict their fertility intentions. We focus on differences in two-child fertility intentions among couples with varying combinations of couples’ education. The overall findings from China reveal that education–fertility has a negative gradient. Furthermore, when husbands are highly educated, highly educated wives exhibit a relatively higher willingness to have two-child than medium-educated wives, but lowly educated wives do not indicate intentions to have two-child. Our results highlight the need to consider the educational backgrounds of both partners to draw conclusions regarding the education-fertility association.
Ajzen, I., & Klobas, J. (2013). Fertility intentions: An approach based on the theory of planned behavior. Demographic Research, S16(8), 203–232. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.8
Bagavos, C. (2017). Do different educational pairings lead to different fertility outcomes? A cohort perspective for the Greek case. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 15, 215–237. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2017s215
Bauer, G., & Jacob, M. (2009). The influence of partners’ education on family formation. University of Mannheim (EQUALSOC Working Paper 2009/4).
Becker, G. S. (1993). Nobel lecture: The economic way of looking at behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 101(3), 385–409. https://doi.org/10.1086/261880
Begall, K. (2013). How do educational and occupational resources relate to the timing of family formation? A couple analysis of the Netherlands. Demographic Research, 29(34), 907–936. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.34
Brauner-Otto, S. R., & Geist, C. (2018). Uncertainty, doubts, and delays: Economic circumstances and childbearing expectations among emerging adults. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 39(1), 88–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-017-9548-1
Budig, M. J., & Hodges, M. J. (2010). Differences in disadvantage: Variation in the motherhood penalty across white women’s earnings distribution. American Sociological Review, 75(5), 705–728. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122410381593
Bueno, X., & García-Román, J. (2021). Rethinking couples’ fertility in spain: Do partners’ relative education, employment, and job stability matter? European Sociological Review, 37(4), 571–587. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcaa070
Busetta, A., Mendola, D., & Vignoli, D. (2019). Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions. Demographic Research, 40, 185–218. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2019.40.8
Chen, W. (2023). Changing fertility patterns in China. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 9(4), 497-521. https://doi.org/10.1177/2057150X231209063
Chen, W., & Zhang, F. F. (2022). Marriage delay in China: Trends and patterns. Population Research, 46(4), 14. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6087.2022.4.rkyj202204002. in Chinese.
Chen, J., & Guo, J. (2022). The effect of female education on fertility: Evidence from China’s compulsory schooling reform. Economics of Education Review, 88, 102257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2022.102257
De Hauw, Y., Grow, A., & Van Bavel, J. (2017). The reversed gender gap in education and assortative mating in europe. European Journal of Population, 33(4), 445–474. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-016-9407-z
Doepke, M., & Kindermann, F. (2019). Bargaining over babies: Theory, evidence, and policy implications. American Economic Review, 109(9), 3264–3306. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160328
Dribe, M., & Stanfors, M. (2010). Family life in power couples: Continued childbearing and union stability among the educational elite in Sweden, 1991–2005. Demographic Research, 23(30), 847–878. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2010.23.30
Fan, W. & Ling, C. (2022). Cultural Mechanism and Policy Implications of Young People’s Low Fertility Desire in Contemporary China. Journal of Public Administration(05),49-65+197. in Chinese.
Goldstein, J. R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A., & Örsal, D. D. K. (2013). Fertility reactions to the "great recession" in Europe: Recent evidence from order-specific data. Demographic Research, 29(4), 85–104. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.4
Grow, A., & Van Bavel, J. (2015). Assortative mating and the reversal of gender inequality in education in Europe: An agent-based model. PloS One, 10(6), e0127806. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127806
Gu, B. C.(2011). Fertility intentions, fertility behavior and fertility levels. Population Research(02),43-59. in Chinese.
Guo, Z., Gietel-Basten, S., & Gu, B. (2019). The lowest fertility rates in the world? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese 1% sample census. China Population and Development Studies, 2(3), 245–258. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42379-018-0012-1
Guo, Z., & Tian, S. (2017). The impact of contemporary young women’s late marriage on low fertility level. Youth Stud, 40, 16-25. in Chinese.
Gustafsson, S., & Worku, S. (2005). Assortative mating by education and postponement of couple formation and first birth in Britain and Sweden. Review of Economics of the Household, 3(1), 91–113. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-004-0981-1
He, H., & Tan, T. (2021). The trend of mean age at first marriage and the factor-specific contribution rate of late marriage in China. Population Journal, 43(5), 16-28. doi:10.16405/j.cnki.1004-129X.2021.05.002. in Chinese.
Hong, S. (2004). Access to higher education for disadvantaged groups in China. Chinese Education & Society, 37(1), 54–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/10611932.2004.11031612
Hu, Y. (2017). Three Essays on Intergenerational Mobility, Sex Ratios, and Marriage Market in China. The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong).
Huber, S., & Fieder, M. (2011). Educational homogamy lowers the odds of reproductive failure. PloS one, 6(7), e22330.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022330
Jin, Y., G., Song, J., & Chen, W.(2016).Women’s Fertility Preference and Intention in Urban China:An Empirical Study on the Nationwide Two-Child Policy. Population Research(06),22-37. in Chinese.
Jones, G. W. (2007). Delayed marriage and very low fertility in Pacific Asia. Population and Development Review, 33(3), 453–478. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00180.x
Kan, M. Y., & Hertog, E. (2017). Domestic division of labour and fertility preference in China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Demographic Research, 36, 557-588. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26332141
Killewald, A., & Bearak, J. (2014). Is the motherhood penalty larger for low-wage women? A comment on quantile regression. American Sociological Review, 79(2), 350–357. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122414524574
Lavely, W., & Freedman, R. (1990). The origins of the Chinese fertility decline. Demography, 27, 357-367. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061373
Li, Y., & Zhang, X. Y. (2021). The influence of marriage delay and birth within marriage on fertility level in China: Based on decomposition model of total fertility rate. Population Journal, 43(4), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.16405/j.cnki.1004-129X.2021.04.001. in Chinese.
Miller, W. B., & Pasta, D. J. (1995). Behavioral intentions: Which ones predict fertility behavior in married couples? 1. Journal of applied social psychology, 25(6), 530-555. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1995.tb01766.x
Morales, D. X. (2020). Partners’ educational pairings and fertility intentions in the United States: Evidence from 2015–2017 national survey of family growth. Social Currents, 7(4), 299–309. https://doi.org/10.1177/2329496520906515
Ní Bhrolcháin, M., & Beaujouan, É. (2012). Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment. Population studies, 66(3), 311-327. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2012.697569
Nitsche, N. (2017). Partners’ Educational Pairings, Work Divisions, and Fertility: Evidence from Germany (No. 19/2017). Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers. https://doi:10.1553/0x003cceca
Nitsche, N., Matysiak, A., Van Bavel, J., & Vignoli, D. (2018). Partners’ educational pairings and fertility across Europe. Demography, 55(4), 1195–1232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0681-8
Nitsche, N., Matysiak, A., Bavel, J. V., & Vignoli, D. (2021). Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe: How Do the Low-Educated Fare?. Comparative Population Studies-Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 46, 533-554. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2021-19
Oppenheimer, V. K. (1994). Women’s rising employment and the future of the family in industrial societies. Population and Development Review, 20(2), 293–342. https://doi.org/10.2307/2137521
Oppenheimer, V. K. (1997). Women’s employment and the gain to marriage: The specialization and trading model. Annual Review of Sociology, 23, 431–453. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.23.1.431
Osiewalska, B. (2017). Childlessness and fertility by couples’ educational (in) equality in Austria, Bulgaria, and France. Demographic Research, 37(12), 325–362. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.12
Pimentel, E. E. (2006). Gender ideology, household behavior, and backlash in urban China. Journal of Family Issues, 27(3), 341–365. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192513X05283507
Pukuh, N., & Wisana, I. D. G. K. (2018). Changes in Assortative Mating Patterns And Couples’ Fertility Behavior. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328928350
Qian, Y., & Li, J. (2020). Separating spheres: Cohort differences in gender attitudes about work and family in China. China Review, 20(2), 19–52. in Chinese.
Raymo, J. M., Park, H., Xie, Y., & Yeung, W. J. (2015). Marriage and family in East Asia: Continuity and change. Annual Review of Sociology, 41, 471–492. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112428
Samari, G. (2019). Education and fertility in Egypt: Mediation by women’s empowerment. SSM - Population Health, 9, 100488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100488
Song Jian & Chen Fang. (2010). Reproductive Behaviors and Preferences of China’s Urban Youths:Deviation and Determinants. Chinese Journal of Population Science(05),103-110+112. in Chinese.
Song, J., & Zhang, J. (2017). Parity, Timing and Level of Fertility: A Comparative Study on Mean Age at Childbearing in China, Japan and South Korea. China Population and Development Studies, 1, 33-48. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03500923
Sun, S. B., & Zhao, X. (2022). Hong Kong wives say no to a big family—educational pairings and fertility in Hong Kong. Journal of Demographic Economics, 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2022.17
Trimarchi, A., & Van Bavel, J. (2020). Partners’ educational characteristics and fertility: Disentangling the effects of earning potential and unemployment risk on second births. European Journal of Population, 36(3), 439–464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-019-09537-w
Tsou, M. W., Liu, J. T., & Hammitt, J. K. (2011). Parental age difference, educationally assortative mating and offspring count: Evidence from a contemporary population in Taiwan. Biology Letters, 7(4), 562–566. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2010.1208
Uchikoshi, F. (2018). Heterogeneous fertility behavior among highly educated women in Japan: The effect of educational assortative mating on first and second childbirth using diagonal reference model.
https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/p7hg8
Van Bavel, J. (2012). The reversal of gender inequality in education, union formation and fertility in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 10, 127–154. https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2012s127
Vignoli, D., Tocchioni, V., & Mattei, A. (2020). The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement. Advances in Life Course Research, 45, 100308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2019.100308
Wang, F., Zhao, L., & Zhao, Z. (2017). China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences. Journal of Population Economics, 30, 31-68. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-016-0613-0
Wirth, H. (2007). Kinderlosigkeit von hoch qualifizierten Frauen und Männern im Paarkontext—Eine Folge von Bildungshomogamie? (pp. 167-199). VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-90323-1_6
Wu, X., & Zhang, Z. (2010). Changes in educational inequality in China, 1990–2005: Evidence from the population census data. In E. Hannum, H. Park, & Y. Goto Butler (Eds.), Globalization, changing demographics, and educational challenges in East Asia (pp. 123–152). Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Yu, X., & Liang, J. N. (2023). Research on Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility in China. Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition(02),65-81+235-236. doi:10.15939/j.jujsse.2023.02.sh1. in Chinese.
Zhao, M. H. (2019). Fertility Intentions for a Second Child in China:Female Educational Attainment and Assortative Marriage. Population Journal(03),16-27. doi:10.16405/j.cnki.1004-129X.2019.03.002. in Chinese.
Zhang, X. Q., Huang, C, H., Zhang, Q., Chen, S. S., & Fan, Q. (2016). Fertility Intention for the Second Child under the Selective and Universal Two-Child Policies: Comparisons and Implications. Population Research(01),87-97. in Chinese.
Zhao, Z., & Zhang, G. (2018). Socioeconomic factors have been the major driving force of China’s fertility changes since the mid-1990s. Demography, 55(2), 733–742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-018-0662-y
Zhang, Z., & Zhao, Z. (2023). Women’s education and fertility in China. China Economic Review, 78, 101936. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2023.101936
Fei, Z., Li, J., Chen, S., & Gao, M. (2025). Educational Assortative Mating and Fertility Intentions in China. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 15(10), 1647–1668.
Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s)
Published by Knowledge Words Publications (www.kwpublications.com)
This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this license may be seen at: http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
