International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences

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Prediction for Spread of COVID-19 in India using SIR Model

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Mohd Rahimie Md Noor, Noor Azreen Rosedee, Nurulain Afiqah Abd Razak, Wan Nur Aisyah Wan Roslan, Mohd Azry Abdul Malek, Sharifah Athirah Syed Adnan, Ahmad Bukhari Mohd Yasin, Mohd Zainuri Muhammad, Amri Ab Rahman

Pages 1400-1412 Received: 21 Apr, 2024 Revised: 25 May, 2024 Published Online: 27 Jun, 2024

http://dx.doi.org/10.46886/IJARBSS/v14-i6/10845
The outbreak of the coronavirus (Covid-19) disease has resulted in a worldwide crisis. To control the transmission of the virus, Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) during the pandemic, such as movement control orders, have been implemented. This project aims to study the transmission of the Covid-19 virus in India using the SIR model. The SIR model is used to derive differential equations using Covid-19 data from January 2020. The maximum number of infectious individuals with different contact ratios was also analyzed. As a result, using MATLAB software, it can be concluded that as the reproduction number of Covid-19 transmission increases, the wave speed will also increase. To minimize the wave speed, the contact ratio must be controlled. It is also proven that the number of infectious individuals can be reduced by lowering the contact ratio.
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Noor, M. R. M., Rosedee, N. A., Razak, N. A. A., Roslan, W. N. A. W., Malek, M. A. A., Adnan, S. A. S., Yasin, A. B. M., Muhammad, M. Z., & Rahman, A. A. (2024). Prediction for Spread of COVID-19 in India using SIR Model. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 14(6), 1400–1412.